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October 10, 2011
And now, the end is here. QE2 has faced the final curtain . The record shows it took the blows and did it QE2 way. Finally to an end. The second round of quantitative easing (QE2) of the curtain is about to fall. In retrospect, it suffered a variety of combat, but still persist in their own way down.
Regrets, it has a few. Actually, maybe more than a few. Economists are nearly evenly split on its usefulness. The Fed bond-buying program, which breathed its last at 11: 00 am ET, may have prevented a double-dip recession , but good luck proving a counterfactual
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< br /> Unfortunately, there are some, in fact, I am afraid, more than “some.” For it is useful to useless, economists largely uncompromising. Federal Reserve (Fed) of the bond purchase plan Friday at 11 am EDT (23:00 GMT Friday, the whole) end, it may be to prevent the occurrence of a double-dip recession, but if there is no double-dip recession in the plan is not it will happen? It is difficult to say.
The list of clear-cut winners in QE2 is pretty short, while the list of on-winners which those less sensitive among us might call osers is a bit longer.
QE2 definitely quite a few winners, but losers (who may not pay attention to as “losers”) will be more.
Winners: winner:
Stocks: The Dow has enjoyed a 24% rally since Ben Bernanke Aug. 27 speech in Jackson Hole promising QE2. Pretty clearly a winner.
stock market: from Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) last August 27 in Jackson Hole speech, pledged to implement since the QE2, the Dow Jones index rose 24%. This is a very clear winner.
Corporate America: Not only have stock prices soared , but profits have risen steadily , and companies have been able to borrow record amounts of money at the lowest rates since the 1940s.
American business: not only the stock price soared, profits have increased steadily, and company to borrow an unprecedented amount of money, the interest rate is the lowest since the 1940s, the.
Commodities: Crude oil is up 30% since Jackson Hole. Gold is up 21%. Winning.
commodities: < / strong> Since the Jackson Hole speech, crude oil prices rose 30 percent, gold rose 21%. The winner.
Banks: This one is less clear-cut. They e benefited from super-low short-term rates , but whatever effect the Fed had in keeping longer-term rates down has kept a lid on their net interest margins . Their stocks have been the worst performers in the market this year – though they e still up 14% since Jackson Hole.
Bank: won the not so obvious. They benefit from low short-term interest rates, regardless of the extent to which the Fed lowered the longer-term interest rates, limits the bank net interest margin. Their stock is the worst performing market this year, but his speech from Jackson Hole still has 14% gain.
Non-Winners: losers:
The Dollar: The clearest-cut loser of the whole thing. The dollar index is down 10% since Jackson Hole.
dollars: is all the most obvious losers. Jackson Hole speech, the dollar index fell by 10%.
Employment: The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.6% in August 2010 to 9.1%, whic [recommended] we charge the credit card was canceled fee Did you know? h is certainly a move in the right direction. No one would mistake this for a rousing job boom , however.
employment: August 2010 the unemployment rate from 9.6% to 9.1%, the direction is certainly right, but not who mistakenly thought prosperity was the job market has been exciting.
Housing: Home prices have fallen 6.5% since Jackson Hole, based on the Case-Shiller 20-city index.
room Price: According to the Case – Shiller (Case-Shiller) 20 City Home Price Index, since the Jackson Hole speech, housing prices have fallen 6.5%.
Emerging Markets: They e been on a wild ride, enjoying huge gains after Jackson Hole as investors went crazy with the free money, but more recently struggling with the effects of too much growth and inflation . The Shanghai Composite is up 6% since Jackson Hole, but that mainly been < strong> due to a bounce that started about 10 days ago, following a 14% drop since late April.
emerging markets: are they experience ups and downs. Jackson Hole speech, crazy as investors took interest-free funds invest in emerging markets was a great benefit, but in more recent times, and because they grow too fast and inflation in trouble. The Shanghai Composite Index has gained from his speech in Jackson Hole, 6%, but this is mainly because the 10 days before the start of a rebound. Before that the Shanghai Composite Index since the end of April fell 14 percent.
Treasury debt: I going to go out on a limb and call this one a big loser. Bill Gross would disagree, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 2.48% just before Jackson Hole to 3.15% today.
U.S. Treasury: I dare say, the U.S. Treasury failed miserably. Gross (Bill Gross) does not agree with this statement, but 10-year bond yields have been from Jackson Hole speech on the eve of the current 2.48% to 3.15%.
Fed credibility: The jury out. There was a lot of criticism of the Fed by foreign officials when QE2 began, but that has quieted down as the global economy has continued to struggle . There still a lot of criticism of the Fed here at home, and its legacy remains to be seen.
Fed credibility : It has not yet conclusive. QE2 started, the Federal Reserve lead to a lot of criticism of foreign officials, but as the global economy continues to struggle, these critics have been settled. United States is still a lot of criticism of the Fed, QE2 will leave any impact remains to be seen.
From The Wall Street Journal
Mark Gongloff